Wait for pullback into LRR 240.75; first target 248.29; TRR reach probability 27.49%; no-catch cliff 234.18.
Long Pullback Watch
AAPLEarly Watch0.46 bwHighShadow
C
58.95%
Reach mid-band 5d horizon
No-catch246.25
LRR · trig253.36
Mid · tgt258.80
TRR · stretch265.21
Show probability matrix & plan
720m
5d
20d
Recover entry
91.86
95.18
97.68
Reclaim LRR
90.64
94.43
96.07
Reach mid
20.58
58.95
80.06
Reach TRR
4.30
27.30
60.92
TrendBullish TransitionBNB
Wait for pullback into LRR 253.36; first target 258.80; TRR reach probability 27.30%; no-catch cliff 246.25.
Long Pullback Watch
NVDAEarly Watch0.50 bwLowShadow
C
67.65%
Reach mid-band 5d horizon
No-catch182.01
LRR · trig190.22
Mid · tgt195.73
TRR · stretch201.16
Show probability matrix & plan
720m
5d
20d
Recover entry
90.46
95.40
98.20
Reclaim LRR
91.22
95.39
98.48
Reach mid
29.37
67.65
87.27
Reach TRR
5.30
37.62
69.10
TrendEarly Bullish ReversalBBB
Wait for pullback into LRR 190.22; first target 195.73; TRR reach probability 37.62%; no-catch cliff 182.01.
Long Pullback Watch
TSLABackground0.41 bwLowOpen
C
59.98%
Reach mid-band 5d horizon
No-catch341.23
LRR · trig354.43
Mid · tgt366.78
TRR · stretch380.84
Show probability matrix & plan
720m
5d
20d
Recover entry
88.45
95.05
96.89
Reclaim LRR
91.38
95.93
97.97
Reach mid
19.81
59.98
80.64
Reach TRR
4.90
33.20
65.40
TrendBullish TransitionBBB
Wait for pullback into LRR 354.43; first target 366.78; TRR reach probability 33.20%; no-catch cliff 341.23.
Short Rally-Fade Watch
MSFTBackground0.48 bwHighShadow
C
58.40%
Reach mid-band 5d horizon
LRR381.83
Mid · tgt395.29
TRR · trig407.76
No-fade420.73
Show probability matrix & plan
720m
5d
20d
Recover entry
81.78
92.72
96.32
Reclaim TRR
91.17
95.62
97.50
Reach mid
28.89
58.40
78.26
Reach LRR
4.30
28.12
57.00
TrendBear Market RallyBBB
Wait for rally into TRR 407.76; fade target 395.29; reach-LRR probability 28.12%; no-fade cliff 420.73.
Long Pullback Watch
NFLXBackground0.52 bwNormalOpen
C
63.13%
Reach mid-band 5d horizon
No-catch98.90
LRR · trig103.72
Mid · tgt107.47
TRR · stretch111.74
Show probability matrix & plan
720m
5d
20d
Recover entry
90.58
96.62
98.47
Reclaim LRR
90.25
95.63
97.61
Reach mid
24.09
63.13
85.80
Reach TRR
4.68
35.82
72.36
TrendEarly Bullish ReversalBBB
Wait for pullback into LRR 103.72; first target 107.47; TRR reach probability 35.82%; no-catch cliff 98.90.
Sorted by readiness then distance · 5d primary horizon · band-relative triggers
All 0Bullish 0Bearish 0
Ticker
Close
ShortMediumLong
Signal
SPX
7,022.95
Structural Bullish
USDJPY
158.71
Structural Bullish
VIX
25.25
Structural Bullish
WTIC
101.38
Structural Bullish
USD
99.76
Early Bull Reversal
AAPL
253.77
Early Bear Reversal
COMPQ
21,591
Early Bear Reversal
COPPER
5.614
Early Bear Reversal
DAX
22,680
Early Bear Reversal
EURUSD
1.1553
Early Bear Reversal
GBPUSD
1.3217
Early Bear Reversal
GOLD
4,678.60
Early Bear Reversal
NIKK
53,085
Early Bear Reversal
RUT
2,496.37
Early Bear Reversal
BTC
67,851
Structural Bearish
CADUSD
0.7187
Structural Bearish
NATGAS
2.884
Structural Bearish
XLK
132.90
Structural Bearish
Immediate 15d · Medium 63d · Long 504— 756d · composite-weighted
DAY TRADE
Up to 240 min
ES
S&P 500 Futures · Futures
Browse universe · 30 tickers
30 shown / 30
OVERNIGHT TRADE
0.5-2 session hold
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF · Indices
Browse universe · 20 tickers
20 shown / 20
MACRO
Regime + nowcasts
Current regime · 12-week projection
Regime 3
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↑
MACRO FRAMEWORK · 30 APR
Inflation is the common signal. Growth is split, so use the overlap first: energy, commodities, pricing power; wait for confirmation before choosing cyclicals or defense.
Historical deep recession months classified as Regime 3 or Regime 4.
436
Monthly anchors
Backtest sample from 1990 to present.
97.4%
All-recession hit rate
Regime 3 / 4 captured nearly every recession month including transition tails.
Anomaly Watch
Cross-asset · ±σ
Print Nowcasts
Model · 80% CI
Trading Implication
Model filter
Inflation
Energy, commodities, gold, and pricing power are the clean overlap while inflation is live.
OW
Quality
Prefer companies that can protect margins if costs stay sticky.
OW
Cyclicals
Growth is split, so wait for confirmation before sizing pro-growth trades.
WAIT
Duration
Works if growth breaks; vulnerable if reflation wins.
TACT
Next Catalyst
NFP decides whether growth is actually breaking or reflation is still alive.
Soft data confirms the defensive read. Hot data keeps inflation hedges and pro-growth cyclicals in tension.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Probabilities of reclaim after breach
AAPL
Apple Inc. · Equities · Long
Browse universe · 128 tickers
27 shown / 128
INVESTING
Long-term · 10 picks + 43 quant signals
Open53
Hit Rate81%
Avg %Δ+12.8%
Sectors13
DAR
Darling Ingredients
Best Idea Long
Energy
Active Long benefiting from rising diesel prices and widening crack spreads. Structural feedstock cost advantage; EPA policy support and the Valero partnership reinforce scale in biofuels.
MUSA
Murphy USA
Active Long
Consumer Staples
Levered to fuel price volatility and rate-of-change. Price-led model drives both margin expansion and traffic; nicotine, energy drinks, and gasoline mix lift the C-store category.
BTI
British American Tobacco
Best Idea Long
Consumer Staples
Elevated to Best Idea Long on increased confidence in nicotine deregulation. Pouch growth continuing at double-digit rates with BTI maintaining global leadership.
CZR
Caesars Entertainment
Best Idea Long
GLL
High-conviction long. Accelerating Las Vegas fundamentals + improving demand drive near-term EPS upside, independent of M&A optionality. ~35-40% upside with takeout optionality.
RSI
Rush Street Interactive
Active Long
GLL
Blowout quarter with revenue growth of +41%. Full-year revenue growth has room to move higher; management showing an inflection in bottom-line profitability.
AMZN
Amazon.com
Active Long
Retail / Mega Cap
Continued bullishness on AWS acceleration + expanding infrastructure. Retail operations remain underappreciated with leverage from robotics, automation, and 30-min grocery expansion.
WRBY
Warby Parker
Active Long
Retail
Positive into expected AI-glasses-driven acceleration. Beat on revenue, EBITDA, EPS while remaining bullish on AI glasses launches.
TTWO
Take-Two Interactive
Active Long
Software
Long based on the GTA VI launch cycle and growing confidence around the Nov 19, 2026 release. Sony marketing partnership + preorder catalysts support the shares.
GOOGL
Alphabet
Active Long
Communications
Standout expected from Google Cloud with tailwinds from YouTube. Monetizing Gemini effectively, supporting the broader AI thesis and earnings power.
SBUX
Starbucks
Active Long
Restaurants
Delivered one of its best quarters in recent memory; blew away estimates and raised guidance. Announced plans to divest the China business — persistent earnings drag.
Best Idea = highest-conviction tier
All 43In Profit 35Drawdown 8New 8
Showing all 43 bench tickers
SPHR
Communications
Entry95.2
Recent135.6
Days121
Signal1/12/2026
Performance+42.4%
CASY
Consumer Staples
Entry640.4
Recent879.1
Days114
Signal1/19/2026
Performance+37.3%
AMAT
Global Tech
Entry322.5
Recent427.8
Days93
Signal2/9/2026
Performance+32.6%
DAR
Energy
Entry51.6
Recent62.9
Days79
Signal2/23/2026
Performance+21.8%
ENB
Energy
Entry51.5
Recent54.7
Days79
Signal2/23/2026
Performance+6.3%
ACHC
Healthcare
Entry23.4
Recent27.4
Days72
Signal3/2/2026
Performance+17.1%
RSI
GLL
Entry20.3
Recent26.5
Days58
Signal3/16/2026
Performance+30.9%
FCFS
Financials
Entry192.1
Recent227.2
Days51
Signal3/23/2026
Performance+18.3%
MGM
GLL
Entry36.3
Recent37.4
Days44
Signal3/30/2026
Performance+3.1%
QSR
Restaurants
Entry76.6
Recent78.2
Days37
Signal4/6/2026
Performance+2.1%
NVDA
Global Tech
Entry188.6
Recent225.9
Days33
Signal4/10/2026
Performance+19.8%
SITM
Global Tech
Entry420.3
Recent825.2
Days33
Signal4/10/2026
Performance+96.3%
ARCO
Restaurants
Entry8.5
Recent8.6
Days33
Signal4/10/2026
Performance+0.8%
LRCX
Global Tech
Entry263.7
Recent292.2
Days33
Signal4/10/2026
Performance+10.8%
MAR
GLL
Entry354.1
Recent348.6
Days33
Signal4/10/2026
Performance−1.6%
GOOGL
Communications
Entry337.6
Recent397.9
Days27
Signal4/16/2026
Performance+17.9%
ROKU
Communications
Entry115.5
Recent127.7
Days23
Signal4/20/2026
Performance+10.6%
CURLF
Cannabis
Entry2.8
Recent4.0
Days23
Signal4/20/2026
Performance+41.4%
LAMR
Communications
Entry134.2
Recent148.8
Days22
Signal4/21/2026
Performance+10.9%
CP
Industrials
Entry82.4
Recent86.4
Days22
Signal4/21/2026
Performance+4.8%
SBUX
Restaurants
Entry97.3
Recent108.0
Days22
Signal4/21/2026
Performance+10.9%
TWLO
Software
Entry150.4
Recent191.5
Days21
Signal4/22/2026
Performance+27.3%
LFMD
Healthcare
Entry4.4
Recent4.5
Days20
Signal4/23/2026
Performance+1.9%
SXT
Consumer Staples
Entry122.4
Recent116.0
Days16
Signal4/27/2026
Performance−5.2%
CARR
Industrials
Entry61.7
Recent65.5
Days15
Signal4/28/2026
Performance+6.1%
MARA
Digital Assets
Entry11.5
Recent12.8
Days9
Signal5/4/2026
Performance+10.9%
BA
Industrials
Entry223.0
Recent241.3
Days9
Signal5/4/2026
Performance+8.2%
TCNNF
Cannabis
Entry9.4
Recent8.4
Days9
Signal5/4/2026
Performance−10.9%
MP
Industrials
Entry67.2
Recent64.9
Days9
Signal5/4/2026
Performance−3.4%
BHP
Industrials
Entry77.9
Recent90.6
Days9
Signal5/4/2026
Performance+16.4%
CRCL
Digital Assets
Entry115.4
Recent127.0
Days9
Signal5/4/2026
Performance+10.1%
RIO
Industrials
Entry99.0
Recent111.8
Days9
Signal5/4/2026
Performance+12.9%
AKAM
Software
Entry115.5
Recent159.6
Days8
Signal5/5/2026
Performance+38.1%
APLE
GLL
Entry13.5
Recent13.8
Days8
Signal5/5/2026
Performance+2.3%
LOTMY
GLL
Entry32.0
Recent30.5
Days7
Signal5/6/2026
Performance−4.8%
WRBY
Retail
Entry26.3
Recent28.1
Days6
Signal5/7/2026
Performance+6.7%
BLMN
Restaurants
Entry8.4
Recent8.4
Days1
Signal5/12/2026
Performance+0.2%
V
Financials
Entry325.6
Recent320.3
Days1
Signal5/12/2026
Performance−1.6%
ILMN
Healthcare
Entry144.9
Recent145.3
Days1
Signal5/12/2026
Performance+0.3%
LII
Industrials
Entry509.2
Recent505.5
Days1
Signal5/12/2026
Performance−0.7%
AZTAF
Retail
Entry106.5
Recent104.3
Days1
Signal5/12/2026
Performance−2.0%
PM
Consumer Staples
Entry182.1
Recent188.7
Days1
Signal5/12/2026
Performance+3.6%
BTI
Consumer Staples
Entry64.6
Recent64.7
Days0
Signal5/13/2026
Performance+0.2%
Sector breakdown
Industrials7+6.3%
GLL5+6.0%
Global Tech4+39.9%
Comms4+20.4%
Staples4+9.0%
Restaurants4+3.5%
Days On = trading days since the initial signal date · GLL = Gaming · Lodging · Leisure
Trading and investing involves significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. These trades are not investment advice — they represent one trader's analysis and positions. You should consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. You assume all risk for your own trades. Full risk disclosure
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