The Math: Diminishing Supply Shock
Cycle 1 (2012): Supply dropped from 7,200 to 3,600 BTC/day at ~$12 price and $200M market cap. Price ran to $1,200 (+10,000%).
Cycle 2 (2016): Down to 1,800 BTC/day at ~$650 and ~$10B cap. Gains topped out at +3,000% to $20,000.
Cycle 3 (2020): 900 BTC/day at ~$9,000 and ~$170B cap. Peak gains ~700% to $69,000.
Cycle 4 (2024): Now just 450 BTC/day against a ~$2 trillion market cap. Absorbing 450 fewer BTC daily into $2T is far less disruptive than 3,600 fewer into $200M.
Institutional vs Retail: A Calmer Market
Early cycles were pure retail speculation — FOMO-driven blow-offs fueled by leverage and hype. That created the vertical tops we remember.
This cycle feels different. Spot ETFs have brought in billions from institutions — BlackRock, Fidelity, and pensions buying steadily on dips. On-chain data shows long-term holders accumulating quietly.
Institutions allocate methodically, avoiding emotional extremes. The result: smoother trends, less euphoria, and lower peak multiples.
Why $100K Might Be the Top
From the 2022 bear low (~$16,000), we're already up over 6x — respectable, but a fraction of prior cycles' multiples.
Pushing meaningfully higher would require a new catalyst beyond the halving: perhaps a U.S. strategic reserve announcement or global liquidity flood. Both feel priced in at current levels.
Resistance around $100K–$110K has been stubborn for months. A failure to break new highs convincingly into fall would fit the maturation narrative perfectly.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin halving diminishing returns aren't theory — they're playing out in real time across price action, participant behavior, and basic arithmetic.
We respect the resilience that got Bitcoin to $100K, but the risk/reward from here feels skewed against big further gains. Maturation is healthy for longevity, but it kills the moonshot dreams.
For us, crypto remains off the menu entirely.