Macro Framework
The macro engine that reads the regime, scores the dislocations, and forecasts every print.
The Vector Ridge Macro Framework is a daily-refresh quantitative macro model that classifies the current growth × inflation regime in real time, scores cross-asset signals on a 5-year rolling z-score basis, and forecasts every Tier-1 economic print with an explicit 80% confidence interval. Six sub-models. One regime call.
The Vector Ridge Macro Framework is the macro layer inside Vector Ridge: regime detection, cross-asset dislocation scoring, and economic-print nowcasts in one daily framework.
Reading macro is a full-time job.
Most traders skip it because the inputs are everywhere — Fed minutes, GDP revisions, ISM sub-indices, breakeven curves, FX flows, credit spreads — and the synthesis takes hours every day. So they react to headlines instead of positioning ahead of regime shifts. The Macro Framework fixes that.
Without a macro framework, you trade on news. You buy the headline, sell the next headline, and wonder why your P&L is just noise.
With one, you trade on regime. You know when stagflation is locking in, when liquidity is pivoting, when the curve is signalling recession. The same chart looks different through the regime lens.
The hard part isn't the framework — it's keeping it updated daily across 30+ inputs and 12 cross-asset signals. The Vector Ridge Macro Framework is the thing that does that for you.
Growth × inflation, every day.
The economy is always in one of four states. Knowing which one is half the trade. The Macro Framework classifies the current state, projects forward 3 and 6 months via Markov chain, and finds the closest historical analogs. Each regime has a known asset-class playbook.
Six sub-models triangulate the call.
The Macro Framework is not one forecast. It's six independent models that score the macro state from different angles — quad classification, recession probability, liquidity flow, curve dynamics, cross-asset z-scores, and rule-based print nowcasts. Each refreshes daily. The panel composes them.
What you'll see on the terminal.
The Macro Framework surfaces 9 distinct outputs in the terminal. Below is a static snapshot of two — the Regime Banner and Anomaly Watch. Inside the live terminal, every value updates from FRED + the worker every 6 hours.
Backtest is open. Math is open.
Every number on the macro framework panel is computed daily from FRED + auditable backtests. Below are the validation stats from the recession composite alone — the simplest sub-model to verify against the historical NBER record.
Three routines, three outcomes.
The Macro Framework is not a "set and forget" model. It's designed to be read on a cadence: a 60-second morning glance, a 5-minute pre-print check, and a deeper weekly regime review. Pick the cadence that matches how you trade.
The 60-second glance
The asymmetric setup
The regime review
Choose Macro at $20, or get it in Plus.
The Vector Ridge Macro Framework is its own $20/month Lite product. Plus is $100/month and combines every released standard feature; Elite adds Rapid Trade. Atlas AI remains a separate closed beta requiring approval.
Macro
- Full macro framework terminal (regime, anomalies, nowcasts, allocation)
- Regime, anomaly, nowcast and allocation context
- Public methodology and documented data inputs
- One selected Lite product · cancel before the next renewal
Plus
Get every released standard feature, including Macro. Rapid Trade remains Elite-only. Atlas AI remains a separate closed beta requiring approval.
Choose Plus →How the Macro Framework stacks up.
You have options for macro analysis. The Vector Ridge Macro Framework is the only one designed for retail traders that's quantitative, daily-refresh, multi-asset, and under $100/month. Here's the honest comparison.
| Macro Framework · $20/mo | Bloomberg Terminal · $24k/yr | Macro newsletters · $50–500/mo | Free / DIY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantitative regime model | 4-quad classifier · Markov forward | Build it yourself | ✕Narrative only | If you build it |
| Recession composite | EM probit + Hamilton SMM · 100% NBER recall | Via add-on data | ✕ | ✕ |
| Cross-asset anomaly z-scoring | 12 signals · 5y rolling · ranked by |σ| | ✓DIY via WS / EQS screens | ✕ | ✕ |
| Tier-1 print nowcasts | 5 prints · 80% CI · auto-refresh | Via ECO <GO> manual | Some publish weekly | ✕ |
| Refresh cadence | Lazy 6h auto-refresh | ✓Real-time | Daily / weekly digests | Whenever you check |
| Methodology citations | Public · academic + FRED | Closed | Sometimes | ✓Read the papers |
| Top-down allocation tilt | σ deviations · 4-12w horizon | ✕ | Editorial only | ✕ |
| Trial route | Separate 3-day no-card route · starts only after confirmation | ✕ | Sometimes 7d | ✓ |
FAQ
Nine panels in the terminal. The headlines: regime probability across Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 with confidence + entropy, a quad plane chart with 5 historical analogs overlaid, Markov forward distributions at 3m/6m, top 5 most-likely paths ranked by joint probability, 12 cross-asset anomalies z-scored and ranked, a desk note editorial wrapper, 5 Tier-1 print nowcasts with 80% CI and reaction matrix, plus a top-down allocation tilt with σ deviations.
Every value is auditable, refreshed daily, and cited from FRED + the published methodology.
The recession composite achieves 100% NBER deep-recession recall (28/28) and 97.4% all-recession Q3/Q4 hit rate in backtest from 1990 to present. That's the simplest sub-model to verify because the NBER's recession dates are public.
The other sub-models (quad classifier, anomalies, nowcasts) are harder to validate against a single ground truth, but the methodology is academic and the inputs are open. Print nowcasts publish an explicit 80% confidence interval, so 1-in-5 prints lands outside the band by design.
The model is not infallible. When entropy is above 1.8 bits, The Macro Framework is explicitly telling you "low conviction — fade single-regime bets." That's a feature.
No. The Desk Note is written in plain English and the regime names (Goldilocks / Reflation / Stagflation / Deflation) are intuitive. Each anomaly row carries a translated "→ trade" line that even a long-only investor can act on (e.g. "long XLE" = buy the energy ETF).
If you're newer, the recommended path is: read the Desk Note daily, watch the Regime Banner shift over weeks, and let the Allocation Tilt guide your portfolio adjustments. Skip the technical layers (entropy, Markov projections, Sharpe) until you want them.
The Vector Ridge Macro Framework is the macro engine. It tells you what regime you're in, where you're going, and which cross-asset signals are dislocated.
The signals (the multi-product platform output across the multi-asset instrument universe — Swing Trade, Overnight Trade, Day Trade and Rapid Trade) are individual trade calls — entry, direction, exit, conviction grade A-D. They're calibrated by the macro context produced by the Macro Framework.
You can use the signals without reading the Macro Framework — they stand on their own. But traders who pair the two get the macro context that explains why a Grade A SPX short is being called this week, or why a long-gold position has the highest conviction across the book.
Yes — review the two trial routes first. The 3-day no-card route starts only after you choose and confirm it, then ends automatically with no charge. The 14-day free trial requires a card, lets you choose Plus or Elite for what follows, and shows its full billing sequence before confirmation.
Beyond that, the methodology is fully documented on this page and in the in-terminal help drawer. Every input series, every academic citation, every backtest stat is open.
The Macro Framework uses a lazy-stale-refresh pattern with a 6-hour TTL. The first request after staleness triggers a background recompute (~2 seconds) and serves the cached value instantly while the fresh compute runs. Subsequent requests get the new value.
Tier-1 economic prints (NFP, CPI, etc.) update the underlying FRED series within minutes of release, so the panel reflects new data within a single refresh cycle.
The 3-day no-card trial ends automatically. Paid Lite, Plus and Elite plans can be cancelled before the next renewal; the exact trial and billing terms are shown before you confirm.
If you're on the fence, the free guide covers the same macro framework principles — read that first, then decide.
See what the model says today.
Choose Macro as a $20/month Lite product, or compare the separate trial routes before confirming one.