2026 Trading Outlook
2026 isn't a reset year — it's an extension of 2025's regime, with higher stakes on inflation and debasement. Our multi-market strategy stays locked.
December 2025The Macro Backbone
Inflation isn't "transitory" — it's the new normal. Tariff costs embedded, goods prices elevated, shelter catching up aggressively. Fed will ease cautiously (maybe 50–75 bps total), but real yields stay supportive of the dollar.
DXY elevated — 115–120 feels like the base case. U.S. growth holds 2–3% on AI investment and reindustrialization, while Europe and China lag. Exceptionalism trades live on.
Hard Assets: The Gift That Keeps Giving
Metals have been the trade of the decade, and 2026 looks like more of the same — only bigger:
- Gold to $4,000+ — central bank buying insatiable, supply constraints tightening
- Silver catching up violently on the ratio
- Platinum/palladium playing industrial catch-up
- Uranium powering the AI data-center boom
Quality Growth: AI Leaders Untouchable
NVIDIA, Alphabet, the hyperscalers — shrugged off every macro scare in 2025 and kept hitting new highs. Capex guides going up, inference demand exploding, moats widening.
These names have pricing power, pristine balance sheets, and secular demand that laughs at higher rates or trade friction. They're the only growth pocket worth owning in this regime.
Bottom Line: No Major Changes
- Maximum overweight precious/industrial metals
- Core conviction in AI infrastructure leaders
- Selective long-dollar forex exposure
- Short MSTR reiterated — zero direct crypto
Volatility will spike — but the winners remain the same. Stay disciplined, buy quality on weakness, and let the structural trends compound. Here's to a prosperous 2026.
Vector Ridge enters 2026 with no major positioning changes: beyond maximum overweight precious/industrial metals; core holdings in AI infrastructure leaders (NVIDIA, Alphabet); selective long-dollar forex; short MSTR. Zero direct cryptocurrency exposure. This article represents our views at the time of publication and should not be considered investment advice.
Vector Ridge sees 2026 not as a reset but as an extension of 2025's regime, with higher stakes on inflation and debasement. Inflation is treated as the new normal rather than transitory, the dollar stays supported with DXY around 115-120, and the multi-market strategy enters the year with no major positioning changes.
The article views precious and industrial metals as the trade of the decade, carrying a maximum-overweight stance into 2026. It cites a gold target of $4,000-plus driven by insatiable central-bank buying and tightening supply, silver catching up violently on the ratio, platinum and palladium playing industrial catch-up, and uranium powering the AI data-centre boom.
AI infrastructure leaders such as NVIDIA and Alphabet are held as core conviction positions, prized for pricing power, pristine balance sheets and secular demand that shrugs off higher rates or trade friction. On crypto the stance is the opposite: zero direct exposure, with a short MSTR position reiterated as the only related expression.
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