The Perfect Storm of Swings
- Weather whiplash: Polar vortex triggers rally, one mild forecast wipes out weeks of gains
- Storage rollercoaster: Record high inventories, sharp draws, potential early injections
- LNG export tug-of-war: Europe/Asia demand vs. outages and geopolitical calm
- Production resilience: U.S. shale pumping near records, supply responds fast
Why Volatility Crushes
Nat gas lures you in with a clean thesis — "cold winter = bullish" — then punishes overconfidence.
Leverage kills: Even a correct directional call gets stopped out on a counter-move. Spreads widen. Headline risk 24/7. One NOAA update and the algo cascade begins.
Options implied vol in the 80–100% range — levels that scream "trader graveyard."
Our Stance: Stay Out
Energy exposure matters, but natural gas isn't the way. Too cyclical, too weather-dependent, too volatile for our risk parameters.
We're getting our energy hedge elsewhere: Uranium for the structural nuclear/AI power boom — clean, deficit-driven, far less volatile. Precious metals for broader commodity inflation protection.
Bottom Line
Natural gas volatility in early 2026 is off the charts. It's a market that can crush even the best thesis with one bad headline.
Be careful out there. Size tiny if you must play, or better yet — let the gamblers fight it out. We're content watching from the sidelines.
Real wealth builds on conviction, not casino bets.