Our long-term investing process combines broad macro theme analysis with rigorous fundamental evaluation, always requiring strong confirmation from price action. This is the discipline of the Investing model, and Chapter 10 sets out the three pillars in full, with time itself as the core edge.
THE THREE PILLARS
MACRO THEMES FIRST
We assess the current economic regime—tracking growth trends, inflation pressures, policy stance, and liquidity conditions. This determines which asset classes, sectors, and themes are best positioned for multi-year outperformance. Chapter 3 maps the four regimes—Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation and Deflation—so you can read which way growth and inflation are turning before you allocate.
FUNDAMENTAL QUALITY
Within favoured macro themes, we select companies with durable competitive advantages, consistent profitability, robust balance sheets, and sustainable growth potential. We focus on high-quality businesses capable of compounding value over decades. Chapter 4 shows how to grade that conviction on the A–D ladder, combining the macro picture with the strength of the underlying business.
PRICE ACTION GATEKEEPER
No matter how compelling the macro backdrop or fundamentals, we only allocate meaningfully when the asset is in a clear, sustained uptrend. We enter on strength or pullbacks within the trend, add on continued confirmation, and trim/exit only on confirmed trend breaks. Price action is the final arbiter—if the market disagrees, we remain patient or in cash. Chapter 2 explains why price is the final gatekeeper, no matter how strong the thesis behind it.
THIS DISCIPLINED APPROACH DELIVERS
Long-term allocations concentrated in truly high-conviction ideas
Major drawdowns avoided from contra-trend positions
Compounding works effectively across full market cycles
Holdings are reviewed constantly to match the ever-changing macro backdrop. Positions are adjusted as market conditions evolve, ensuring the portfolio stays aligned with current trends and opportunities. Chapter 11 covers the temperament this requires—filtering noise and resisting the urge to trade a long-term book on short-term headlines.